The June 2005 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook is online. This month's outlook provides recent drought conditions and the latest seasonal forecasts. This month's feature article is entitled "Monsoon could strengthen as climate warms."
To download a printer-friendly PDF file (2.9 MB) of the June 2005 Outlook, visit:
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/end/packets/junepacket2005.pdf
As always, you can view the latest Southwest Climate Outlook in html format at:
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swoutlook.html
Highlights from the June 2005 Outlook
Hydrological Drought – Despite unusual spring rainfall in parts of the Southwest, abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought persist.
• Lake Powell topped 10 million acre-feet for the first time since July 27, 2004.
• Storage in most New Mexico reservoirs increased, but statewide storage was still below average at the end of May. Temperature – The water year has been near average in the Southwest, while the past 30 days were mainly above average.
Precipitation – Most locations, except portions of southeastern Arizona, are much wetter than average for the water year.
Climate Forecasts – NOAA-CPC long-lead outlooks show increased chances of above-average temperatures for much of the Southwest through December. Increased chances of drier-than-average conditions are expected through September.
El Niño – Probabilistic forecasts indicate that the current neutral ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to continue through early 2006.
The Bottom Line – Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought will persist through September. Wildfire potential will remain above average as grasses continue to cure.