3A Publication by CLIMAS
January 10, 2012 / Vol. 2 / Issue 2
Preface
La Niña has returned, and for a second consecutive winter will affect the weather and climate of the Southwest. Drought is widespread and intense, and the expectation for drier-than-average conditions will likely expand impacts. This publication provides climate and drought information from experts and credible sources in order to help the region stay abreast of evolving drought conditions and impacts and climate changes.
Drought Conditions
The pervasive and heavy precipitation in December substantially improved drought conditions in both states. Extreme and exceptional drought covered only 3 and 23 percent of Arizona and New Mexico, respectively, as of January 3. One month ago, extreme and exceptional drought smothered 30 and 36 percent of Arizona and New Mexico, respectively…. Read more
Snowpack
The amount of water contained in the snowpack was largely above average in Arizona and New Mexico on January 6; southern mountains benefitted the most from a series of winter storms.
Winter storms have yet to fill the Upper Colorado River and Rio Grande basins with snow…. Read more
A Look Ahead
The precipitation outlook for January-March suggests increased chances for below-average precipitation in nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico.
Odds for below-average precipitation are 50-60 percent in parts of the southern tier of both states…. Read more
Final Word
Precipitation outlooks call for elevated chances for below-average rain and snow, which, in turn, are feeding forecasts for the persistence or intensification of drought in most of Arizona and New Mexico through March.
Winter storms will occur despite the La Niña. The critical question is how often will conditions favor widespread rain and snow. Historically, weak La Niña events deliver less than 75 percent of the December-March average for most of Arizona and New Mexico. Weak events are also not as dry as moderate or strong events…. Read more
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