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Federal forecasters are predicting yet another busy hurricane season.

Thursday’s outlook calls for 13 to 20 named storms, 7 to 11 that strengthen into hurricanes and 3 to 6 that become major hurricanes.

The prediction by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is more than what’s considered an average Atlantic season.

Last year was the third-busiest on record with 19 named storms. Ten became hurricanes and were two major storms, with winds over 111 mph.

That included Sandy, which caused $50 billion in damage even though it lost hurricane status when it made landfall in New Jersey.

The last time a major hurricane made landfall in the United States was Wilma in 2005. The seven year U.S. landfall drought is the longest on record.

The six-month season starts June 1.

FROM: http://www.wfla.com/story/22407282/noaa-predicts-another-busy-hurricane-season

May 22, 2013

Southwest Climate Outlook

Vol. 12 Issue 5

Photo: David Elliot

Photo Description: Hot, dry, and windy conditions in May and June elevate fire risk. That risk plummets when monsoon storms, like this one, begin in earnest, usually in early July.

May Climate Summary

Drought: Severe drought has expanded across much of Arizona, while exceptional drought now covers about 44 percent of New Mexico.

Temperature: Warmer-than-average temperatures in Arizona and colder-than-average conditions in New Mexico dominated in the last month.

Precipitation: Although one storm wafted through the region in May, precipitation has been scant, which is typical for this time of year.

ENSO: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the summer.

Climate Forecasts: The June–August forecast calls for increased chances for above-average temperatures in the Southwest, while precipitation may be below average in eastern New Mexico.

The Bottom Line: Drought conditions in New Mexico have steadily worsened through the winter. Extreme and exceptional drought conditions cover about 82 percent of the state, an increase of approximately 70 percent since October 1. Drought conditions in Arizona are only slightly better, and both states experienced a third consecutive winter in which rain and snow was below average. Most of Colorado, from which much of the water in major southwestern rivers originates, also received below-average precipitation. Consequently, best estimates for spring streamflows in the Colorado River and Rio Grande, the Southwest’s most important rivers, are projected to be only 42 and 24 percent of average, respectively. With May and June historically dry months for Arizona and New Mexico, improvements in drought and water supply likely will not arrive until the monsoon begins in earnest. Fire activity will also ramp up in coming months, which is the typical pattern for this time of year—fires peak in June and July. The parched landscape, however, has fire managers expecting above-normal fire risk. At this point, relief from drought and drought-related impacts hinges on the timing and vigor of the monsoon. With dry and warm conditions in the Great Plains, there is some indication that the monsoon may arrive earlier than average. However, monsoon forecasts are highly uncertain and there is no guarantee that an early arrival translates to above-average rain. While a vigorous monsoon could dampen temperatures by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, forecasts call for above-average temperatures, in part because of warming trends experienced in recent decades.

Read more >

In this issue…

Research Highlight…

Some Good and Bad in the Newest Climate Models

Includes…

Recent Conditions

Temperature
Precipitation
U.S. Drought Monitor
AZ Drought Status
NM Drought Status
AZ Reservoir Volumes
NM Reservoir Volumes
Southwest Snowpack
Fire Summary

Forecasts

Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook
Seasonal Drought Outlook
Streamflow Forecast
Wildland Fire Outlook
El Niño Status and Forecast

Download the PDF

March 27, 2013

Southwest Climate Outlook

Vol. 12 Issue 3

Photo: Pacifica Sommers

Photo Description: Despite below-average precipitation in many parts of the Southwest, the deserts are beginning to spring into color.

March Climate Summary

Drought: Central Arizona is the only region in the Southwest to experience drought improvement in the last 30 days; moderate to severe drought conditions still cover the majority of the region, with drought most intense in New Mexico.

Temperature: Rapid warming in March has led to temperatures that are more than 3 degrees F above average in many regions.

Precipitation: Most of Arizona and New Mexico experienced less than 70 percent of average precipitation in the last 30 days.

ENSO: Neutral conditions remain entrenched in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to continue through the summer and possibly into next year.

Climate Forecasts: Forecasts for the April–June period call for increased chances for above-average temperatures, in part based on recent trends, and below-average precipitation in northern parts of Arizona and New Mexico.

The Bottom Line: The 2012–2013 winter is nearing an end, and although it is several weeks premature to write this winter’s eulogy—early April storms do happen—it appears that Arizona and New Mexico will experience their third consecutive drier-than-average winter. Since January 1, less than 70 percent of average rain and snow fell in nearly all of Arizona except central regions. It was drier in New Mexico, where many areas received less than 50 percent of average precipitation. On March 8, one storm dropped substantial precipitation in Arizona but bypassed New Mexico. This storm helped improve drought conditions in central Arizona, which is now drought-free, but most of the Southwest remains classified with at least moderate drought. It has been about two years since the majority of Arizona was drought-free and about two-and-a-half years for New Mexico. Cold temperatures that helped sustain snowpacks in the mountains around the Southwest throughout much of the winter rapidly warmed in March, particularly in the last two weeks. March temperatures in Arizona, for example, were up to 6 degrees F above average, while temperature anomalies in New Mexico were only slightly lower. The warm conditions have eaten into snowpacks around the region. Nearly every basin in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah has below-average snowpacks, and many monitoring stations in Colorado are in the lowest fifth percentile of their historical records. Consequently, forecasts for watersheds around the region all call for below-average streamflows. This is particularly grim for the Pecos River and the Rio Grande in New Mexico, which already have low stores. Historically, the coming months are dry and windy, and there is some indication that temperatures may be warmer than average.

Read more >

In this issue…

Feature Article…

Recent freeze events: Natural variability or weird weather?

Research Highlight…

Temperature’s Influence on Sudden Aspen Decline

Includes…

Recent Conditions

Temperature
Precipitation
U.S. Drought Monitor
AZ Drought Status
NM Drought Status
AZ Reservoir Volumes
NM Reservoir Volumes
Southwest Snowpack

Forecasts

Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook
Seasonal Drought Outlook
Streamflow Forecast
El Niño Status and Forecast

Download the PDF Version

15 Mar 2013

(Climate Central)

The U.S., which pioneered the groundbreaking science of weather forecasting using mathematical simulations of the atmosphere, has fallen behind other nations when it comes to the accuracy of its global forecasting model. The consequences could be dire for people in harm’s way if the U.S. is less prepared for extreme weather and climate events.

Read original story

FROM InsideClimate News

News release: "A new NOAA study projects that heat-stress related labor capacity losses will double globally by 2050 with a warming climate. The impact will be felt the most by those who work outside or in hot environments, such as firefighters, bakery workers, farmers, construction workers, factory workers, and others who will be forced to slow down due to increases in heat and humidity. This will be particularly apparent in mid-latitude and tropical regions, which include South and East Asia, North America, and Australia. The research, published online today in Nature Climate Change, uses existing occupational health and safety thresholds to establish a new metric to quantify a healthy, acclimated individual’s capacity to safely perform sustained labor under environmental heat stress. Heat stress can result in heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and can also increase the risk of injuries. Age, obesity, and medical conditions such as heart disease or high blood pressure can also put workers at greater risk of heat stress."

GDAE Working Paper 13-01
February 2013

Download the working paper

Is climate change good or bad for agriculture? As recently as the 1990s, it was widely believed that the first few degrees of global warming would boost world average crop yields and food production. Higher temperatures were expected to lengthen growing seasons in temperate regions, while more carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere would act as a fertilizer, promoting plant growth.
This paper explains that research of the last decade has led to a more ominous outlook for agriculture. Continued use of the earlier research findings, in economic models and policy analyses, contributes to an unwarranted complacency about the urgency of climate policy.
Earlier research concluded that the initial stages of climate change would bring net benefits to global agriculture, thanks to carbon fertilization and longer growing seasons in high-latitude regions. This conclusion has been challenged in at least three respects:

1. Newer experimental studies have sharply reduced older estimates of carbon fertilization effects.
2. The effect of temperature on many crops has been found to involve thresholds, above which yields rapidly decline; the number of hours above the threshold is typically more important than the average temperature.
3. Climate change will bring significant changes in precipitation; in a number of important areas, decreases in precipitation may cause declines in agricultural production. Simple, aggregated economic analyses of climate change have often omitted these crucial effects of precipitation.

Adaptation to warmer and often drier conditions is necessary but not sufficient for agriculture. Within a few decades, business-as-usual climate change would reach levels at which adaptation is no longer possible. Emission reduction and climate stabilization are essential to any long-run solution for global agriculture.
Download: Climate Impacts on Agriculture: A Challenge to Complacency?

See other GDAE publications on climate change

Read more on GDAE’s work on agriculture

Read more of Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth Stanton’s work on climate change

Read more on GDAE’s Globalization and Sustainable Development Program