January 24, 2012
Southwest Climate Outlook
Vol. 11 Issue 1
Source: Mindy Butterworth
Photo Description: Winter storms in December coated the higher elevations of Arizona and New Mexico in snow, much like they did in Romero Canyon in Catalina State Park near Tucson, Arizona, in 2010. In recent weeks, dry weather has returned.
Drought– Warm and dry conditions reigned in Arizona in the past 30 days, and moderate or a more severe drought category covered more than 60 percent of the state. In eastern New Mexico, drought conditions slightly improved.
Temperature– Temperatures were warmer than average in many regions in the Southwest in the last month. Most of Arizona was at least 3 degrees F above average, and temperatures across a large section of the Colorado Plateau were up to 6 degrees F warmer than average.
Precipitation– Conditions generally have been dry in the past 30 days, which reflects the typical La Niña pattern that was not present during the first three weeks of December.
ENSO– The La Niña event remains weak to moderate, and most forecasts call for the persistence of La Niña through April.
The Bottom Line– Dry conditions returned to Arizona and the western half of New Mexico after a wet and cool December. These conditions are more representative of typical La Niña events, in which the jet stream and the storms it ferries are often pushed north. Like last winter, December was wet and January has been dry. The key difference, however, is that this winter the Upper Colorado River Basin did not benefit from the December storms that blanketed the high elevations of Arizona and New Mexico in snow. Rather, snow has been sparse and most snowpacks in this region are well below average. Consequently, early spring streamflow forecasts for the Colorado River call for inflow into Lake Powell to be about 64 percent of average. Conditions can rapidly change, and there likely will be more wet spells. However, using past La Niña events as a guide, forecasters expect dry conditions to be more common than wet ones.
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In this issue…
Western States Seed Clouds in Search of New Water
Scientists to Host Climate Book Club
Includes…
Recent Conditions
Temperature
Precipitation
U.S. Drought Monitor
AZ Drought Status
NM Drought Status
AZ Reservoir Levels
NM Reservoir Levels
Southwest Snowpack
Forecasts
Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook
Seasonal Drought Outlook
Streamflow Forecast
El Niño Status and Forecast
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