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David Horsey
Los Angeles Times May 15, 2012 |
Tom Tomorrow: The Austerions (dailykos.com)
Pat Bagley: Banking While Intoxicated (caglecartoons.com)
He who controls the past controls the future.
He who controls the present controls the past.
George Orwell, 1984
Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade, by Week and PADD (Self Service Prices per Gallon, Including Taxes)
Date 4/30/2012 5/7/2012 5/14/2012 U.S. 3.830 3.790 3.754 PADD 1 - East Coast 3.829 3.762 3.698 PADD 1a - New England 3.928 3.880 3.828 PADD 1b - Central Atlantic 3.874 3.809 3.764 PADD 1c - Lower Atlantic 3.765 3.692 3.610 PADD 2 - Midwest 3.749 3.721 3.641 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 3.685 3.622 3.558 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3.787 3.764 3.762 PADD 5 - West Coast 4.121 4.135 4.255 PADD 5b - West Coast less CA 4.009 4.001 4.063 California 4.186 4.213 4.367
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
Author/Editor:
Benes, Jaromir ; Chauvet, Marcelle ; Kamenik, Ondra ; Kumhof, Michael ; Laxton, Douglas ; Mursula, Susanna ; Selody, Jack
Authorized for Distribution:
May 01, 2012
Electronic Access:
Free Full text(PDF file size is 863KB).
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary:We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.
From: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25884
Excluding the United States, the world holds an estimated 565 billion barrels (bbo) of undiscovered, technically recoverable conventional oil; 5,606 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of undiscovered, technically recoverable conventional natural gas; and 167 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas liquids (NGL), according to a new assessment by the USGS released today. The report includes mean estimates of undiscovered but technically recoverable conventional oil and gas resources in 171 geologic provinces of the world. These estimates include resources beneath both onshore and offshore areas.
News & Publications ………………………………………………………..
Type: USGS Press Release & Publication (4/18/2012)
An Estimate of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of the World, 2012
(SEE Spotlight Article – top of page)
Type: USGS Press Release & Publication (2/24/2012)
Assessment of Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Potential of the Alaska North Slope
The USGS estimated potential, technically recoverable oil and gas resources for source rocks of the Alaska North Slope. Estimates (95-percent to 5-percent probability) range from zero to 2 billion barrels of oil and from zero to nearly 80 trillion cubic feet of gas. Includes links to: DOI News Release, USGS Fact Sheet, USGS slide presentation, and USGS Science Feature Story.
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Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3049 (4/25/2012)
Water quality studied in areas of unconventional oil and gas development, including areas where hydraulic fracturing techniques are used, in the United States
USGS Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
Domestic oil and gas production and clean water are critical for economic growth, public health, and national security of the United States. As domestic oil and gas production increases in new areas and old fields are enhanced, there is increasing public concern about the effects of energy production on surface-water and groundwater quality. To a great extent, this concern arises from the improved hydraulic fracturing techniques being used today, including horizontal drilling, for producing unconventional oil and gas in low-permeability formations. USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis is hosting an interdisciplinary working group of USGS scientists to conduct a temporal and spatial analysis of surface-water and groundwater quality in areas of unconventional oil and gas development. The analysis uses existing national and regional datasets to describe water quality, evaluate water-quality changes over time where there are sufficient data, and evaluate spatial and temporal data gaps.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3052 (4/22/2012)
Assessment of Potential Additions to Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of the World (Outside the United States) from Reserve Growth
Reserve-Growth Assessment Project
The USGS estimated volumes of technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources resulting from reserve growth for discovered fields outside the United States that have reported in-place oil and gas volumes of 500 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater. The mean volumes were estimated at 665 billion barrels of crude oil, 1,429 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 16 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. These volumes constitute a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas resources.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3050 (4/23/2012)
Assessment of remaining recoverable oil in selected major oil fields of the San Joaquin Basin
Reserve-Growth Assessment Project
The USGS recently completed an estimate of volumes of technically recoverable, conventional oil that could eventually be added to reserves in nine selected major oil fields in the San Joaquin Basin in central California. The mean total volume of potential oil reserves that might be added in the nine fields using improved oil-recovery technologies was estimated to be about 6.5 billion barrels of oil.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3051 (4/23/2012)
Assessment of remaining recoverable oil in selected major oil fields of the Permian Basin, Texas and New Mexico
Reserve-Growth Assessment Project
The USGS recently completed an estimate of technically recoverable, conventional oil in selected oil fields in the Permian Basin in west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The mean total volume of potential additional oil resources that might be added using improved oil-recovery technologies was estimated to be about 2.7 billion barrels of oil.
Type: Publication / USGS Open-File Report 2012-1062 (4/17/2012)
Migration Rates and Formation Injectivity to Determine Containment Time Scales of Sequestered Carbon Dioxide
Supercritical carbon dioxide exhibits highly variable behavior over a range of reservoir pressure and temperature conditions. Because geologic sequestration of supercritical carbon dioxide is targeted for subsurface injection and containment at depths ranging from approximately 3,000 to 13,000 feet, the investigation into the physical properties of this fluid can be restricted to the pressure and temperature conditions likely encountered in the sedimentary strata within this depth interval. A petrophysical based approach was developed to study the widest range of formation properties potentially encountered in sedimentary strata.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3030 (4/10/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the South Africa Coastal Province, Africa
World Petroleum Resources Project
The South Africa Coastal Province along the South Africa coast recently was assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids resources as part of the USGS World Oil and Gas Assessment. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated mean volumes of 2.13 billion barrels of oil, 35.96 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 1,115 million barrels of natural gas liquids.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3039 (4/10/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of Four East Africa Geologic Provinces
World Petroleum Resources Project
Four geologic provinces along the east coast of Africa recently were assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids resources as part of the USGS World Oil and Gas Assessment. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated mean volumes of 27.6 billion barrels of oil, 441.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 13.77 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2011–3149 (4/5/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the North Sakhalin Basin Province, Russia, 2011
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated volumes of undiscovered, technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources for the North Sakhalin Basin Province of Russia. The mean volumes were estimated at 5.3 billion barrels of crude oil, 43.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 0.8 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.
Type: Publication / Open-File Report 2012-1024-A (3/30/2012)
Geologic Framework for the National Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources─Bighorn Basin, Wyoming and Montana
The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110–140) directs the USGS to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO2). The methodology used for the national CO2 assessment follows that of previous USGS work. The methodology is non-economic and intended to be used at regional to subbasinal scales. This report identifies and contains geologic descriptions of twelve storage assessment units (SAUs) in six separate packages of sedimentary rocks within the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming and Montana The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110–140) directs the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO2). The methodology used for the national CO2 assessment follows that of previous USGS work. The methodology is non-economic and intended to be used at regional to subbasinal scales. This report identifies and contains geologic descriptions of twelve storage assessment units (SAUs) in six separate packages of sedimentary rocks within the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming and Montana.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3029 (3/29/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of Papua New Guinea, Eastern Indonesia, and East Timor, 2011
World Petroleum Resources Project
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated means of 5.8 billion barrels of oil and 115 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas in five geologic provinces in the areas of Papua New Guinea, eastern Indonesia, and East Timor.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012–3031 (3/28/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources in the Paradox Basin Province, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona, 2011
National Assessment of Oil and Gas
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated means of 560 million barrels of undiscovered oil, 12,701 billion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas, and 490 million barrels of undiscovered natural gas liquids in the Paradox Basin of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.
Type: Publication / Open-File Report 2012–1033 (3/21/2012)
Calculation of Hydrocarbon-in-Place in Gas and Gas-Condensate Reservoirs—Carbon Dioxide Sequestration
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (Public Law 110-140) authorized the USGS to conduct a national assessment of geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO2), requiring estimation of hydrocarbon-in-place volumes and formation volume factors for all the oil, gas, and gas-condensate reservoirs within the U.S. sedimentary basins. The procedures to calculate in-place volumes for oil and gas reservoirs have already been presented by Verma and Bird (2005) to help with the USGS assessment of the undiscovered resources in the National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska, but there is no straightforward procedure available for calculating in-place volumes for gas-condensate reservoirs for the carbon sequestration project. The objective of the present study is to propose a simple procedure for calculating the hydrocarbon-in-place volume of a condensate reservoir to help estimate the hydrocarbon pore volume for potential CO2 sequestration.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3025 (3/15/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of Bonaparte Basin, Browse Basin, Northwest Shelf, and Gippsland Basin Provinces, Australia, 2011
World Petroleum Resources Project
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated means of 4.7 billion barrels of undiscovered oil and 227 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas in three major offshore petroleum basins of northwest Australia and in the Gippsland Basin of southeast Australia.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3155 (2/27/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Southern Siberian Craton (Baykit High, Nepa–Botuoba High, Angara−Lena Terrace, and Cis−Patom Foredeep Provinces), Russia, 2011
World Petroleum Resources Project
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated volumes of undiscovered, technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources for the southern Siberian craton provinces of Russia. The mean volumes were estimated at 3.0 billion barrels of crude oil, 63.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 1.2 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3018 (2/27/2012)
Assessment of Potential Unconventional Carboniferous-Permian Gas Resources of the Liaohe Basin Eastern Uplift, Liaoning Province, China, 2011
World Petroleum Resources Project
The USGS estimated a mean of 448 billion cubic feet of potential technically recoverable unconventional natural gas in Carboniferous and Permian coal-bearing strata in the eastern uplift of the Liaohe Basin, Liaoning Province, China.
Type: Publication / USGS Digital Data Series 69–W (2/16/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Williston Basin Province of North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota, 2010
USGS Williston Basin Province Assessment Team
Using a geology-based assessment method, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 3.8 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, 3.7 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 0.2 billion barrels of undiscovered natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin Province, North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota. Also available on CD-ROM.
Type: Publication / USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2011–5195 (2/12/2012)
Gas Hydrate Prospecting Using Well Cuttings and Mud-Gas Geochemistry from 35 Wells, North Slope, Alaska
Gas hydrate deposits are common on the North Slope of Alaska around Prudhoe Bay; however, the extent of these deposits is unknown outside of this area. As part of a USGS and Bureau of Land Management gas hydrate research collaboration, well-cutting and mud-gas samples have been collected and analyzed from mainly industry-drilled wells on the North Slope for the purpose of prospecting for gas hydrate deposits. On the Alaska North Slope, gas hydrates are now recognized as an element within a petroleum systems approach or “total petroleum system.” Since 1979, 35 wells have been sampled from as far west as Wainwright to Prudhoe Bay in the east. …
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012-3154 (2/2/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Amu Darya Basin and Afghan–Tajik Basin Provinces, Afghanistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, 2011
World Petroleum Resources Project
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated volumes of undiscovered, technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources for the Amu Darya Basin and Afghan–Tajik Basin Provinces of Afghanistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The mean volumes were estimated at 962 million barrels of crude oil, 52 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 582 million barrels of natural gas liquids for the Amu Darya Basin Province and at 946 million barrels of crude oil, 7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 85 million barrels of natural gas liquids for the Afghan–Tajik Basin Province.
Type: Publication / USGS Fact Sheet 2012–3003 (2/7/2012)
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources in Conventional and Continuous Petroleum Systems in the Upper Cretaceous Eagle Ford Group, U.S. Gulf Coast Region, 2011
National Assessment of Oil and Gas
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS assessed means of (1) 141 million barrels of oil (MMBO), 502 billion cubic feet of natural gas (BCFG), and 16 million barrels of natural gas liquids (MMBNGL) in the conventional Eagle Ford Updip Sandstone Oil and Gas Assessment Unit (AU); (2) 853 MMBO, 1,707 BCFG, and 34 MMBNGL in the continuous Eagle Ford Shale Oil AU; and (3) 50,219 BCFG and 2,009 MMBNGL in the continuous Eagle Ford Shale Gas AU in onshore lands and State waters of the Gulf Coast.
Type: Publication / Open-File Report 2012-1016 (2/2/2012)
Review of Rare Earth Element Concentrations in Oil Shales of the Eocene Green River Formation
Concentrations of the lanthanide series or rare earth elements and yttrium were determined for lacustrine oil shale samples from the Eocene Green River Formation in the Piceance Basin of Colorado and the Uinta Basin of Utah. Unprocessed oil shale, post-pyrolysis (spent) shale, and leached shale samples were examined to determine if oil-shale processing to generate oil or the remediation of retorted shale affects rare earth element concentrations. …
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Type: Outside Publication / Journal (June 2012)
Role of Stranded Gas from Central Asia and Russia in Meeting Europe’s Future Import Demand for Gas
USGS paper published in Natural Resources Research Volume 21, Number 2: Stranded gas is natural gas in discovered fields that is currently not commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. This study examines stranded gas from Russia and Central Asia and the role it can play in addressing Europe’s growing demand for imported natural gas requiring additional volumes of gas in excess of 130 trillion cubic feet.
Type: Outside Publication / Journal (April 2012)
VARBOOT: A spatial bootstrap program for semivariogram uncertainty assessment
USGS paper published in Computers & Geosciences Volume 41: In applied geostatistics, the semivariogram is commonly estimated from experimental data, producing an empirical semivariogram for a specified number of discrete lags. In a second stage, a model defined by a few parameters is fitted to the empirical semivariogram. As the experimental data are usually few and sparsely located, there is considerable uncertainty about the calculated semivariogram values (uncertainty of the empirical semivariogram) and about the parameters of any model fitted to them (uncertainty of the estimated model parameters). In this paper, the uncertainty in the modeling of the empirical semivariogram is numerically assessed by the generalized bootstrap, which is an extension of the classic bootstrap procedure modified for spatially correlated data. …
Type: Outside Publication / Journal (March 2012)
Gas emissions, minerals, and tars associated with three coal fires, Powder River Basin, USA
USGS paper published in Science of The Total Environment Volume 420: Ground-based surveys of three coal fires and airborne surveys of two of the fires were conducted near Sheridan, Wyoming. The fires occur in natural outcrops and in abandoned mines, all containing Paleocene-age subbituminous coals. Diffuse (carbon dioxide (CO2) only) and vent (CO2, carbon monoxide (CO), methane, hydrogen sulfide (H2S), and elemental mercury) emission estimates were made for each of the fires. …
The Fed: Mend It or End it?
“Last week I held a hearing to examine the various proposals that have been put forth both to mend and to end the Fed. The purpose was to spur a vigorous and long-lasting discussion about the Fed’s problems, hopefully leading to concrete actions to rein in the Fed.
First, it is important to understand the Federal Reserve System. Some people claim it is a secret cabal of elite bankers, while others claim it is part of the federal government. In reality it is a bit of both. The Federal Reserve System is the collusion of big government and big business to profit at the expense of taxpayers. The Fed’s bailout of large banks during the financial crisis propped up poorly-run corporations that should have gone under, giving them a market-distorting advantage that no business in the United States should receive. The recent news about JP Morgan is a case in point. JP Morgan, a recipient of $25 billion in bailout money, recently announced it lost another $2 billion. If a corporation shows itself to be a bottomless money pit of "errors, sloppiness and bad judgment," the Fed shouldn’t have expected $25 billion in free money to change that or teach anyone a lesson in fiscal discipline. But it determined that this form of deliberate capital destruction was preferable to one business suffering bankruptcy. Clearly, some changes need to be made…”
Click here to read the full article: http://bit.ly/KaodYD
